Bank of Canada maintains overnight rate target at 1 ¾ per cent

The Bank of Canada today maintained its target for the overnight rate at 1 ¾ per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 2 per cent and the deposit rate is 1 ½ per cent.

Recent data suggest that the slowdown in the global economy has been more pronounced and widespread than the Bank had forecast in its January Monetary Policy Report(MPR). While the sources of moderation appear to be multiple, trade tensions and uncertainty are weighing heavily on confidence and economic activity. It is difficult to disentangle these confidence effects from other adverse factors, but it is clear that global economic prospects would be buoyed by the resolution of trade conflicts.

Many central banks have acknowledged the building headwinds to growth, and financial conditions have eased as a result. Meanwhile, progress in US-China trade talks and policy stimulus in China have improved market sentiment and contributed to firmer commodity prices.

For Canada, the Bank was projecting a temporary slowdown in late 2018 and early 2019, mainly because of last year’s drop in oil prices. The Bank had forecast weak exports and investment in the energy sector and a decline in household spending in oil-producing provinces. However, the slowdown in the fourth quarter was sharper and more broadly based. Consumer spending and the housing market were soft, despite strong growth in employment and labour income. Both exports and business investment also fell short of expectations. After growing at a pace of 1.8 per cent in 2018, it now appears that the economy will be weaker in the first half of 2019 than the Bank projected in January.

Core inflation measures remain close to 2 per cent. CPI inflation eased to 1.4 per cent in January, largely because of lower gasoline prices. The Bank expects CPI inflation to be slightly below the 2 per cent target through most of 2019, reflecting the impact of temporary factors, including the drag from lower energy prices and a wider output gap.

Governing Council judges that the outlook continues to warrant a policy interest rate that is below its neutral range. Given the mixed picture that the data present, it will take time to gauge the persistence of below-potential growth and the implications for the inflation outlook. With increased uncertainty about the timing of future rate increases, Governing Council will be watching closely developments in household spending, oil markets, and global trade policy.

Big-Bank Mortgages Are Comfortable, Popular And The Worst Deal Around

Why do we stay with them? Complacency is a big reason. A lack of knowledge is another.

By: Justin Thouin 

Via: Huffpost

Whenever one of these major Canadian banks tweak their mortgage rates, it makes headlines. Like last month, when RBC dropped its five-year fixed-term mortgage rate by 0.15 percentage points (or 15 basis points) to 3.74 per cent. Every major news outlet in Canada picked it up.

But here’s the thing about the bank’s posted mortgage rates — they shouldn’t matter. The big banks never offer the lowest mortgage rates in the market and those are the ones you want to pay attention to.

Canadians pay attention to the big guys, however, because they’re either too comfortable to make a change or simply not aware they’re being taken for a ride. The banks have a 90-per-cent stranglehold on the Canadian mortgage market and we’ve been slow to start paying attention to the alternative — often cheaper — options out there.

Complacency is a big reason. A lack of knowledge is another.

See, there’s a whole industry of smaller, more competitive mortgage lenders and brokers who never make headlines. They’re often just as established, they’re absolutely just as reliable, and they’re significantly more affordable. So why do we stay with the big banks? Complacency is a big reason. A lack of knowledge is another.

In every unhealthy relationship, there comes a time to say “enough.” And unless you enjoy funding the mega-profitable Big Six, there’s no better time to say it than now.

Here are the two reasons you should ditch your big bank and try out the plethora of smaller lenders out there.

Brokers and smaller lenders often drop their rates first

In a nutshell, here’s how mortgage rates work: lenders (whether big banks or small lenders) lend money to homebuyers in the form of mortgages. Even big banks have to borrow money at times to ensure they can lend money out to meet demand, and they always borrow at a lower rate than they lend it out at. That’s how they make a profit.

Beginning this past fall, the rates that lenders were borrowing at began to fall. For example, in November 2018, a five-year government of Canada bond was costing lenders 2.5 per cent in interest — it’s now costing them around 1.75 per cent. That reflects the cost of lending in the bond market, which helps influence fixed-rate mortgages. But the big banks are only recently starting to pass these savings onto Canadian consumers.

Smaller lenders and brokers began lowering their mortgage rates ahead of the big banks in January — when they should have. But you didn’t hear about those rate change, because small lenders don’t make headlines.

Brokers and smaller lenders had lower rates to begin with

Even if we put aside the fact that the big banks were inexcusably late with the recent rate drop, it still doesn’t make sense to stay with them. That’s because smaller lenders and brokers consistently offer mortgage rates that are way better than those posted by the banks.

Case in point: RBC’s news-making five-year fixed rate of 3.74 per cent would mean a monthly payment of $2,560 on a $500,000 mortgage (assuming a down payment of at least 20 per cent to avoid CMHC insurance, and a 25-year amortization period).

If you took that same buying scenario ($500,000 mortgage, no CMHC insurance, 25-year amortization period) and mapped it onto the best currently available five-year fixed-rate available in the market — which happens to be 3.23 per cent, at time of publication — you’d be looking at monthly payments of $2,426.

That’s monthly savings of $134. Might not seem like much, but over the course of the 25-year mortgage? You’re looking at saving $40,200 by ditching your bank.

So here’s the headline that you should see, but you never will: Canadians are overpaying by staying with their big bank.

But we can all change that. Start by making sure that when you get a mortgage, you’re not just walking into the bank and taking the first rate they offer. Shop around and compare — hop online and see what competitors will offer you.

We all compare flights and hotels when we’re taking a trip overseas. We should start doing the same for financial products. After all, the money you can save on a vacation pales in comparison to what you can save on a mortgage.

RBC cuts 5-year fixed mortgage rate

Royal Bank of Canada has lowered its posted five-year fixed rate by 15 basis points from 3.89 per cent to 3.74 per cent.

Mortgage rate comparison website founder Robert McLister says RBC is the first of the Big Six banks to cut its advertised five-year fixed rate after a fall in five-year bond yields.

McLister adds that he expects other big banks to follow suit in the coming days.

When asked what prompted the rate drop, an RBC spokesperson said a number of factors have impacted the Toronto-based bank’s cost of funds.

RBC says that includes the rate the bank pays in the wholesale market, increasing regulatory costs and market volatility.

McLister says now that market volatility has subsided, the bank’s competitors have started undercutting big banks which puts pressure on them to act.

Banks Won’t Touch Your Construction Loans, And Here’s Why You Don’t Want Them To

By: Robb Nelson

Building you own home? Let us explain why private financing is used vs bank financing. There is something primally satisfying about building your own home as you get to take a blank slate of land and turn it into the home of your dreams where everything is laid out the way you want. You get to make all the decisions on how the floor-plan looks! You can design your breakfast nook so it has lots of natural light, you are able to place your rec room as far away from the bedrooms as possible allowing you to sleep in on the weekends while the kids are blaring video-games. But to a bank, your dream home is their worst nightmare, and here’s why:

  1. Banks often don’t have a dedicated construction mortgage team

Banks do provide construction financing; however, they very seldom have a specialized team that focuses solely on that type of lending. Why don’t they? Because as far as they are concerned, construction mortgages are much more trouble than regular mortgages are. Construction mortgages tend to involve much more risk as, if something goes wrong, selling a house that is only partially completed is much more difficult than selling a completed one. As a result, most banks don’t want to put time into understanding exactly how they should work.

  1. Banks have more restrictions

When banks do provide financing for a construction project, the terms that they offer are usually very restrictive. For example, banks generally want to ensure that you own the land that you are building on outright before going forward, and they usually don’t provide any financing at registration. This can also mean that you’d need a different source of funds to get your project to a point where banks will actually finance it, this can mean ensuring your home has a foundation or is framed before getting a draw from the bank. Furthermore, banks will not allow ‘Self Builds’, they will only provide financing to Tarion Registered Builders. This means that no matter what experience you have, a professional construction company needs to be involved.

  1. Banks have stiff draw schedules

For the most part, banks will stick to a strict schedule consisting of three draws for financing any construction. This means that if you run short of funds before reaching the next milestone in your project, you can be stuck until you find another source of money to draw from to reach that milestone and get the next draw from the bank.

So, the bottom line is that banks will rarely touch a construction loan and if they do it can cause some real difficulties. Instead, going with private financing will allow you much more freedom and with people who are educated in construction loan, and the great part is, once the house is completed then bank financing can be obtained!

The Bank of Canada today maintained its target for the overnight rate at 1 ¾ per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 2 per cent and the deposit rate is 1 ½ per cent.

The global economic expansion continues to moderate, with growth forecast to slow to 3.4 per cent in 2019 from 3.7 per cent in 2018. In particular, growth in the United States remains solid but is expected to slow to a more sustainable pace through 2019. However, there are increasing signs that the US-China trade conflict is weighing on global demand and commodity prices.

Global benchmark prices for oil have been about 25 per cent lower than assumed in the October Monetary Policy Report (MPR). The lower prices primarily reflect sustained increases in US oil supply and, more recently, increased worries about global demand. These worries among market participants have also been reflected in bond and equity markets.

The drop in global oil prices has a material impact on the Canadian outlook, resulting in lower terms of trade and national income. As well, transportation constraints and rising production have combined to push up oil inventories in the west and exert even more downward pressure on Canadian benchmark prices. While price differentials have narrowed in recent weeks following announced mandatory production cuts in Alberta, investment in Canada’s oil sector is projected to weaken further.

These developments are occurring in the context of a Canadian economy that has been performing well overall. Growth has been running close to potential, employment growth has been strong and unemployment is at a 40-year low. Looking ahead, exports and non-energy investment are projected to grow solidly, supported by foreign demand, the CUSMA, the lower Canadian dollar, and federal tax measures targeted at investment.

Meanwhile, consumption spending and housing investment have been weaker than expected as housing markets adjust to municipal and provincial measures, changes to mortgage guidelines, and higher interest rates. Household spending will be dampened further by slow growth in oil-producing provinces. The Bank will continue to monitor these adjustments.

The Bank projects real GDP will grow by 1.7 per cent in 2019, 0.4 percentage points slower than the October outlook. This revised forecast reflects a temporary slowing in the fourth quarter of 2018 and the first quarter of 2019. This will open up a modest amount of excess capacity, primarily in oil-producing regions. Nevertheless, indicators of demand should start to show renewed momentum in early 2019, leading to above-potential growth of 2.1 per cent in 2020.

Core inflation measures remain clustered close to 2 per cent. As expected, CPI inflation eased to 1.7% in November, due to lower gasoline prices. CPI inflation is projected to edge further down and be below 2 per cent through much of 2019, owing mainly to lower gasoline prices. On the other hand, the lower level of the Canadian dollar will exert some upward pressure on inflation. As these transitory effects unwind and excess capacity is absorbed, inflation will return to around the 2 per cent target by late 2019.

Weighing all of these factors, Governing Council continues to judge that the policy interest rate will need to rise over time into a neutral range to achieve the inflation target. The appropriate pace of rate increases will depend on how the outlook evolves, with a particular focus on developments in oil markets, the Canadian housing market, and global trade policy.